By Hayim Mizrachi – President | Principal | Broker – MDL Group (3 min read)
Do you think a recession is coming and will cause annihilation to the world over?
With this question moving to the forefront of business conversations in Southern Nevada one might think so. But what do the statistics say? If anyone can give a voice to numbers, its Jeremy Aguero.
Tuesday, June 18, 2019 Nevada State Bank Private Event – Every year Nevada State Bank teams up with Applied Analysis to publish results of their Small Business Survey. This is their 6th annual.
The bank surveys more than 400 small business decision-makers about the economy, business environment, revenue and profitability, employment, community involvement, and the overall outlook for small businesses in Nevada.
It’s available here as a free download.
Back to Jeremy. On this lovely summer day, 54 of Nevada State Bank’s favorite clients (moi included), gathered to hear the run down from Jeremy himself. It was an intimate setting as usually for this event.
Jeremy covered three areas of growth – Population, Jobs, and Wages. He spoke about areas of concern and capped it off with a legislative update.
Takeaways
Population
- Growth in Southern Nevada is 3x the national average
- There are 4,000 – 5,000 residents moving here per month
- That’s measured by electric meter readings (which are up 1.9% more in multi-family than single-family) and by where taxes are paid
- The rate of people moving here from California is increasing. A reason is because they can no longer deduct State Income Tax against Federal
- The number of people ages 65+ moving to Nevada is increasing. This demographic brings with them consumption, large amounts of equity and they don’t take jobs.
- Fun fact – a U-Haul from San Jose to Las Vegas is $2,000. And $139 back from Las Vegas to San Jose. That goes to show how the flow of migration.
- Another fun fact – Clark County failed to meet population projections for school enrollment. What happened? Kindergarten and 1st grade enrollment was down by half. People are having fewer children.
- The #1 motivation for people moving to Nevada is to find a job
- The #2 motivation is retirement which is a far second
Job growth
- There are more open jobs in Southern Nevada today today than there are people to fill them
- There are 53,000 business in southern Nevada. That is the most ever.
- The core industry is still leisure and hospitality which accounts for 30% of the workforce
- We have seen visitor volume plateau
- Major casino operations are restructuring and laying people off. This is caused by an increase in activist investors. It leads to shift in how we think about the visitor.
- We are seeing a refocus on the consumer from the hospitality sector
- Other markets are becoming more competitive, specifically with Las Vegas
- There is more convention space under construction in Las Vegas than all but 5 markets have total convention space
Wage growth
- In the last legislative session, the minimum wage increased from $8.25 to $12.00 / hour
Areas of concern
- The ability of the housing market to bring on supply
- The visitor economy overall. Need to see growth because its plateaued. Look to international visitors as a source of growth
- Attracting and retaining talent. (I am hearing this in every single panel discussion and business lecture these days!)
Things are going well but it is hard to find good people. The slowing and plateauing for business in Southern Nevada will be caused by lack of quality people.
Bottom Line
- Overall the local economy is performing extraordinary well
- Keep an eye on the plateauing of the national economy
- Southern Nevada continues to benefit from California
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